The image above is the TLDR version. Since I got a lot of feedback to extrapolate on the post, I am providing more color commentary and relevant links.

I believe the type and kind of people the big tech will hire when they start to again, will be dramatically different from the ones they let go or have in their organizations now.

To be clear I am not saying they won’t hire again, and neither am I saying they won’t be large, relevant or important employers.

What will happen is that they will hire more younger developers, designers, marketers and sales people and fewer “lateral” hires.

Younger people not only cost much less, they are also more likely to fully expect that AI will aid them be more efficient.

First some context:

1. Developers are already using GitHub copilot to write 40% of their code, which they do not change at all.
2. Designers are the early adopters of Generative AI, causing earnings at Fiverr and Upwork for remote designers to drop by 15% especially those who are “inexpensive but average”.
3. Marketing people are early adopters of ChatGPT for content, reducing their reliance on agencies for content.
4. Google employees criticize CEO Sundar Pichai for botched layoffs.
5. Activist investors are taking aim at Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff and others over employee productivity. So, he cut costs by laying off people and impressed on his sales team to increase productivity.
6. Meta has deemed 2023 as “year of efficiency” while it cuts more costs than it has to, and deprioritizes projects that have longer term impact.
7. All the big tech companies are facing Government scrutiny – Apple over App store, Microsoft over acquisition of Activision, Facebook over antitrust, Amazon over MGM acquisition and Google over Double Click and display ads.
8. Elon Musk fired about 61% o the Twitter staff after he purchased the company, raised prices on API access and still managed to introduce new features.

All this leads to what the trend is going forward.

1. Fewer engineering managers hired. The rule of thumb used to be 5-6 at for junior managers and 8-10 employees per senior manager. I see that changing. The role of the manager will be more of a talent coach – recruit, advocate and cheer their direct reports, leaving the on-job coaching to senior developers, designers and marketers.
2. Fewer individual contributors hired and most of them younger, less experienced. This will save them money and also allows them to encourage people to be more productive with AI
3. Smaller, earlier acquisitions (tuck in, within a new product team), instead of the large acquisitions that they were used to.