All posts by Mukund Mohan

My discipline will beat your intellect

Are incubators really necessary?

ReadwriteWeb had a relevant post about incubators.

As the infrastructure costs of “starting up” become lower, the barrier to get “funded” gets higher. Used to be you could get away with prototype. These days every investor wants traction. Traction is easier when you have help from an incubator.

You need not go to college to get a job, but there’s a correlation between higher degrees and higher pay. Similarly in 5-10 years

I can totally see a situation where 70% or greater of startups go through an incubator rather than go it alone.

It will increase the chances of getting funded and highly increase the chances of success.

I do think most companies will go through an incubator even if the founders are experienced folks in a few years. The current batch of incubators favor (either by design or natural fit) younger, fresh out of college grads.

The key part of this equation is that not all incubators are equal. If your incubator does not provide value (raising funding, getting customers or helping hire key employees), then its not worth wasting your time with them.

Notes from the BCG Global Wealth report 2011

The BCG report on Global wealth came out a few days ago. This report (along with another from KPMG) usually gives you an early indicator of what’s to come in the HNI and is an early indicator to the angel investor market. Some highlights:

1. # of millionaire households (worldwide) is 12.5 million (increased 12.5%). The million is invest-able income not including home.

2. Top 5 countries with millionaires – US, Japan, China, UK and Germany.

a) US 5.2 Million households

b) Japan 1.5 M

c) China 1.1 M

d) UK 570K

e) Germany 400K

India is #11 at 190K households (seems low, since the number of businesses doing more than INR 10,000,000 in annual revenue in India itself is  about 150K). Add politicians (local & state), film and sports personalities and you might easily get a 250K – 350K number.

The Ultra High Net Worth households (over $100 Million in invested assets) is about 12,000 worldwide, with the US leading at 2600+ households.

Of these the number of investors willing to fund risky technology startups is a very small 500-1000 number. Its obvious that most HNI in the non-technology space invest mostly in real estate and offshore investment vehicles. The real fun starts when the number of technology investors goes up to about 5000 (10 times the current number).

The Internet trends report by Mary Meeker – some key insights

I enjoy Mary Meeker’s annual trends  reports, which summarize key mobile and Internet stats and puts them in context to tell a compelling story. Below is a link to the report, which makes for a great iPad reading late in the day.

KPCB Internet Trends 2012http://www.scribd.com/embeds/95259089/content?start_page=1&view_mode=list

Some key takeaways for me.

1. Even though India is ranked #2 in the Internet users added in 2012 metric, (most of whom are thanks to the mobile phone) it “feels” like a comparison of apples to oranges. Most Indian users with mobile Internet access dont use it is my gut feeling.

2. 3G is dramatically changing the landscape. 1.1B subscribers is more than critical mass.

3. Smartphones are at little less than 1B. Again an amazing stat, but considering the number of feature phones is at 5 B, there’s a lot of room for growth. Most interesting is that this might happen in the next 5 years. Imagine every person (or most everyone) having a phone that has a camera, GPS and Internet. It has the potential to *change* the news media industry dramatically. The #1 thing people do (besides email and call) on the phone is get news and information (weather, stock, sports, news) and #2 is play games – this is by # of minutes spent.

4. Mobile traffic is 10% of all Internet traffic. For some websites its close to 30% of their visits. Mobile first seems like a very smart strategy for consumer apps / sites.

5. Mobile monetization is driven (71%) by app purchases, and very little <30% by ads.

6. India Internet traffic from mobile is reaching the same number as desktop Internet traffic (April 2012). Not surprisingly CPM’s are lower on mobile than notebooks.

7. Newspaper ad revenues was surpassed by Internet in 2012 and the trend is heading towards digital at a very fast clip.

Absolutely awesome read on the before and after pictures.

Zig when everyone else Zags. Some thoughts on eCommerce in India

I dont buy into the prevailing wisdom that eCommerce in India is dying (dead). For venture investors the eCommerce category might be “been there, done that”, but smart entrepreneurs always see opportunity in being contrarian.

There are some very interesting eCommerce companies doing good work (growing revenues, making margin and excelling in service)  in India. While the mainstream companies are spending money on advertising, acquiring customers expensively and offering deep discounts, many niche sites are building their reputations with an excessive focus on service and unique (relatively) products.

While there are 1.4 million Internet retailers in the US, there are about 2000 in India (ones that are doing more than 5 transactions daily). Most of the smaller ones that are doing a good job in the US are focused on either niche segments or markets. That I believe is a key trick that most niche eCommerce sites in India are executing the best on.

I wanted to highlight a few that I consider are doing a good job.

1. Shopo: I wanted to invest in this company before they took a seed round from a few investors. They are a good example of focus on fairly unique products and a good team executing well.

2. Allthingscustomized Another fairly crowded market, but the marketing techniques have been tweaked to make a margin on every customer order in this very competitive market segment.

3. Greendust: Looks and feels like yet another ecommerce site, but sells refurbished goods, with a good markup.

If you have an eCommerce site and are doing well, your best strategy is to keep your head down, focus on metrics and operations and ignore all the news and pundit’s opinions.

Zig, when everyone else Zags.

Why is there no data only cell carrier

If facebook, Amazon and Barnes and Nobel are building their own tablets and “cell” phones, why is there not a cell carrier who only offers a data plan?

What about all those internet devices that are going to come on the grid in a few years. The Internet of things only need data, not voice.

No minutes for talking.

No SMS plan to send unlimited text messages.

Just a data plan.

Apparently I am not the only one who thought of this.

There’s a operator in Bangladesh who only offers a data plan. But besides that the market is wide open.

There’s a huge market potential for this I believe. Okay, maybe a large one. Or a relatively smaller one, but there’s one for sure.

I’d buy a facebook phone today

What if?

1. Every time someone called me on my phone I get all their details, some specific reminders of their recent interests, likes and dislikes and what they are thinking.

2. I get their photo, recent images and where they had recently been on vacation, so my conversations are more engaging.

3. I dont have to pay for Text messaging (SMS) fees to chat with them and instead use the phone’s messaging function and only pay for data (not voice).

P.S. I am still trying to figure out why so many folks like voice calls instead of text messages or email.

4. I can only share my photos with my existing friends and family (automatically), with no need to manually upload, sync, tag etc.

5. I only get calls from pre-selected folks in my friend list (who I have authorized) or from companies I have confirmed a liking or intention to work with. Others need to send me a “message” so I can add them to my list if desired.

That’s something I’d pick over a “regular” android or iPhone.

That’s possibly the facebook mobile phone.

I believe, (if it comes), facebook wont focus on a hardware device. Just a software OS (fBOS sounds good) that is manufactured by HTC, Samsung, Nokia and others.

The art of disciplined experimentation

Being a hobbyist is an awesome way to keep learning and test “theories” you have. Most cases, when I have a theory I’d like to prove or disprove, I’ve found the best way is to just try it out. That applies to a new product idea, new marketing technique or a new sales strategy that I have either a hunch for or have overheard from someone else.

The key part that I have learned from my experiments, is that you need a framework (or a model) to clearly outline what you intend to learn from it, what assumptions you made, what steps you took and what you learned from the experiment.

If you dont have a framework, you end up with a lot of experiments whose results might suit you at a later date, but you “forget” about those experiments.

The thing about experiments is you have to understand clearly why they succeeded or failed. 

If you do that and internalize the learning, it becomes a part of your decision making for the future. Experiments without learning is just wasting time – which is also a valid reason to experiment in itself, but you have to be clear about that upfront.

To be disciplined in my experimenting, I have found that doing one at a time suits me best. I found out from a expert in SEO about a much simpler way to track the keywords you want to rank for and a quicker ethical way (than the usual 2-3 months) to appear on the first search engine results page.

My immediate thought process was “that’s just not right” and “wont work all the time”. But it was right and it works, and the only way I would be convinced of it, was if I did it myself.

I also put a time frame for my experiment, to determine if its worth the result. Many of these experiments take several months, so doing nothing but that one experiment during that time, is hard. The results from that learning better make up for more than the time and effort.

Which is why I developed for myself a list of questions so I can be disciplined about my experimenting. These questions are fairly straightforward, but my lens for the questions is based on three criteria:

a) Will it be fun?

b) Will I learn something I dont already know?

c) What new things will I learn and where can I use the learning from the experiment?

The new age startup – Build a feature not a product

Its a well known fact that the infrastructure costs of building a software / Internet startup have dramatically reduced. Although the costs of developers have dramatically gone up by the same percentage, the productivity per employee hired has also gone up dramatically. Given that a developer can now manage instances, push to production etc., the need for DevOps is moved to a much later day, lowering the number of people needed at a startup.

A decade ago most companies were focused on building a business – long term focus, building processes to scale and grow.

5 years ago companies started to focus on building a good product.

The new law of the valley startup (2012) is build a feature.

See if there’s any traction.

Build next feature.

See if traction has increased.

<Rinse & Repeat>

Why has this happened?

1. MVP: Most people are taking the Minimum viable product to its extreme (or bare minimum) and valuing a shipping feature over a feature rich product delivered later.

2. Try your idea out: Most of us have a idea (we think) is going to change the world. The world though, has other plans. It does not like change. Small, incremental changes are acceptable (maybe) but large ones, take time. So lets push a simple small change to the user (customer) and see their reaction.

3. Too small to fail. If all a feature takes is 3-4 weeks to build, the cost of the development is low. Amazingly low. And at that point, failure (or lack of traction) does not matter. Its okay for the product to not fit the market, because the product  was not built anyway. Its just a feature that was built.

4. It helps with prioritizing features of your product. If all you build is one feature, the next one is customer driven (mostly). If a feature does not get traction, it does not matter. Remove it to add another.

5.There’s no long term without short term. I heard PG say this from another friend. If you dont get some short term traction or wins, there’s no point in thinking what the world would look like when you are dominating it.

So my fellow entrepreneurs, build a feature.

Ship. See if it gets traction. Build more. Keep shipping.

How to get constructive feedback from a VC pitch?

I was at the Citrix Synergy conference (San Francisco) last week presenting Hey Maya.We were one of 5 companies presenting from a pool of 80 that applied to the Citrix Startup accelerator. Each company was given 6 minutes to present and 2 minutes Q&A by the judging panel.

The judging panel was a few VC’s (Ignition, Azure, Andreessen-Horowitz), and Jason Calacanis.

Besides these guys there were 6 others from Citrix.

We did not win. Script Rock did an awesome job and they deserved to win.

Jason did his best Simon Cowell impersonation and was thoughtful, constructive in his criticism and very specific in his feedback. The rest of the guys did not have much time to ask questions or provide feedback or did not really think much of our pitch – either ways, it was okay.

The surprising part is how many people just echoed his exact comments back to me, in fact using the same words he did and a good measure of cliche’s thrown in.

Either they all thought of the exact same thing, (which I doubt) or they all just followed his lead.

Every time you make your company’s pitch as an entrepreneur to VC’s realize that they are in the selection business. They see over 1000’s of pitches each year and are bound to notice patterns. Some of them are personable and thoughtful, but many are just pulling cliche’s from the bag.

“Its not a big market”, “You need to focus”, “Its not differentiated enough”.

While these high level pointers are largely useless, and most VC’s wont have more time to tell you any thing more, a few folks I have met actually offer solutions and not just problems.

If the market your targeting is small, are there other ways to position it such that you go after a big market?

If there are too many “features” you are looking to develop is there one that really sticks out to them as “something that has legs”?

If the product is not differentiated enough, are there 1-2 things that might make it different?

I would highly advice you to ask questions of the VC and put them on the spot to really offer “constructive criticism” and not just banalities.

You’ll then really know the good investors from the herd.

Google Consumer Surveys: Cheapest validation insurance you should explore

If you are like me, I would like to get more data from potential customers before I launch my product. Usually I need answers to question like:

1. What are the top 3 features you are willing to pay for?

2. At what price point would this become a must have product to you?

3. Where do customers go to look for information about my product?

I have tried Google Consumer Survey and its working out well so far.

If you are a startup I’d highly recommend the Rs.5 / response initiative ($0.10) and its a very small amount of money to spend as insurance to get live feedback from many customers.

If you want to learn about how to do it, here’s a simple tutorial.

Google Consumer Survey
Google Consumer Survey