All posts by Mukund Mohan

My discipline will beat your intellect

Warren Buffet’s greatest quotes

My personal favorites:

#42: We’ve long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make
fortune tellers look good. Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe
that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked
up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who
behave in the market like children.

#14: It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you’ll do things differently.

The entire list.

The Detroit bailout

Regardless of all the reasons why Detroit’s in trouble the main issue is still one of inferior products being built. The cars made by Detroit are no longer the best in the market. Imagine for a moment instead of the auto industry it was the technology industry asking for bailout. Lets say for example, Sun Microsystems.

The outrage would be obvious.

There are several problems that the UAW and the car companies themselves list to the problems of their industry:
1. Higher employee payroll for Detroit companies compared to Honda, Toyota and Nissan. Sure, but its not a big factor.
2. More retirees with benefits that add to their costs. Also important but not a killer.
3. More dealerships with restrictive state laws that add to their costs. Yeah right.
4. Outrageous executive pay. Sure, it can come down, but its not going to make a huge difference.

None of this can take away from the fact that Detroit makes bad products that most of their customers detest. I don’t buy Sun gear now, and don’t want them bailed out. If they file for bankruptcy, awesome, they can restructure and get stronger to build better products.

The pretax profitability of Detroit’s cars is woeful because their products demand no better. BTW this is not yet another of those – “You are speaking of Detroit in 1980’s, drive an American car today” kinda rant. I have an Audi, Ford SUV (Explorer) and have also had the Acura, Mercedes, Toyota and a BMW (all over the last 5-7 years).

The worst of the lot was the Ford Explorer.

Blaming Pakistan is not the answer

Like many following the Mumbai terror attacks I went through a range of emotions.

Initially shocked, I was unable to concentrate on work the morning of the attacks. Since I called family and friends the night of the first attacks, I was relatively calm but felt the pain immensely.

Photos from Vinu brought out the anger. Stereotypically, I  associate “terrorist” with uneducated, mindless, calculating, heartless misfits. The image of young 20+ year olds with AK-47’s and magazines of bullets brings out deep anger at our state.

The usual questions came to mind: 1) Why is this happening? or Why are they doing this? 2) How can we stop this or What can be done to solve this?

I dont profess to have a lot of answers, but I think we need a much better strategy than a set of talking heads claiming to annhiliate Pakistan or wipe out “Muslim terrorists“.

Why is this happening?
1. The growing gap between the poor (mostly minority communities) and rich is one major cause of this. There are homegrown terrorist organizations in India. I dont think anyone would dispute this, actually. Muslims are a minority in India. So are Christians and myraid other “castes”. Hindus are the majoriy. They all have either their “terrorist outfits” or “Naxalites”.

We have to find more inclusive growth. This is not an easy problem to solve. In fact I cannot think of a single country including the US and China, that has solve this problem. Somehow they dont have as many homegrown terrorists. Why? I dont for a moment think its because of homogeneity.

2. The injustices and supression: It exists in many places, but is more pronounced in India. In report after report, its obvious the minorities have fewer opportunites, make less money and are a poorer lot. Yes, they have “freedom of religion” and inalienable rights but at the end of the day its the majority that calls the shots.

3. Unresolved conflict. Kashmir is a problem, we know, but somehow want it to go away – not the state mind you, just the “problem” of Kashmir. There’s no easy solution to it obviously, else we I am sure we’d have tried it. But if it means sacrificing something to gain peace, we should explore that option. Trouble is I dont think anyone is convinced peace will reign without both sides being completely satisfied with the outcome – which is similar to the Israel / Palestine problem.

What can be done to start to solve this problem?
1. Acknowledge why this is happening. I’m not sure over 50% of Indians even agree that these are the cause of the problems. Most still prefer to blame Pakistan. I dont claim they are innocent, but they are not listed in the top 3 are they?

2. Shore up defences. India has over 1.2 Million policemen and over 1 million paramilitary personnel. Its the largest force in the world. But that number is dwarfed by the size of the population. I dont think adding more people is the answer. The willingness to use the masses to help and the aid of new technology is the need of the hour. I believe you can use the size of the population to an advantage.

3. Create opportunities to help clear the mistrust. India had a terrible Sikh terrorism problem, which no longer exists or is largely subdued. So how did that go away? A combination of ruthless handling of the insurgency and an inclusive approach towards the economic benefit to Punjab.

I am still searching for answers.

You get paid to do that research?

Ever wonder who funds these people that do the useless reports that state the obvious?  I am wondering and the answer is we all do. Take for example:

I mean really do you need research for that?

I remember the Seinfeld episode in which he makes fun of the researchers that invented seedless watermelon ( I personally am thankful for that BTW), but he asks a good question – “What kind of people work on this kind of stuff? Flunkies? Other people work on Aids, cancer research, but these guys (spits out an imaginary seed) they say this has to stop”.

The other extreme is the guys that do the research on the weird. If you remember USA Today always has their little survey box on front page with obviously ridiculous items:

  • When adults in America shower do they soap their left hand first or the right – with a pie chart that has to have the “refused to disclose” at a small percentage at 7. I swear I am not making this up.
  • How many people who eat fruit in the morning prefer their watermelon cut in squares versus wedges?
  • Nytimes this morning: Happy people dont watch TV.

Now to be clear, I love data as much as Flowing data and its representations fascinate me, but dont you think this goes beyond the norm?

The difference between US and India : Ability to take risk

I was talking to a friend today about the difference between the willingness for Indians in India to take risks versus the ones in US to take risk. It is well known that there are several problems with the inability for Indian investors and entrepreneurs to take significant risks (which usually results in breakthrough returns). Most Indian entrepreneurs face different challenges than Americans OR even Indian entrepreneurs in America.

He boiled it down to one specific thing: Other People’s Money. Its a very powerful concept which I have not completely had the time to think through but the more that I think about it, the more it makes sense. I’d love any alternative opinions.

What does that mean?

He argues its easier to take large risks with other people’s money (which is the case in US) versus your own money and assets (which is the case in India).

Its well known that entrepreneurs in US look to get funding from VC’s to grow. So many entrepreneurs (who dont bootstrap) dont put their own money into their startup. They put sweat equity but not their own cash (most cases). You could argue its the same or more vaulable, but its not the same thing.

The Venture Capitalist does not put their own money in also, it comes from their Limited Partner.

The Limited partners (like pension funds, etc) dont put their own money in, its the money they are managing for retirees, investors.

So in some terms there is a fourth degree of separation between the money and its owner, who feels the pain when its “lost”.

In India however its your money or your own assets on the line(though that’s changing with more VC’s coming in), or from friends and family. You have an obligation to return their money with “interest” – its usually debt not equity.

When its your money or your collateralized assets, you tend to take less risk.

What do you think?