Category Archives: Entrepreneurship

Which type of pivot is the hardest for entrepreneurs?

If you have been working on your startup for any reasonable amount of time, you will learn quickly that the market and customer assumptions you make are quite different from reality in most cases. In some situations they might be relatively benign and still others they might take a complete change of focus and direction.

At the #napkinStage of the company, pivots are a lot easier to execute than at the later stages. Since the immediate impact is largely the time and effort spent on the idea, it tends to be easier to acknowledge, explain or work on.

In watching 14 entrepreneurs over the last 6 months, I have seen 5 companies pivot.

Types of Pivots
Types of Pivots

The hardest is the Market pivot – focusing on a completely different market than the one they focused on before – going from IoT startup to a data SaaS company. This type of pivot will take 18 or more months to execute. Learning about a new market is hard. Building relationships and understanding nuances of the landscape is even harder. It might seem easy since when you research on the Internet, but many markets are fairly opaque, till you spend more time learning about them.

The second hardest is the Customer type pivot – a company went from selling to consumers to selling to SMB with the same product. Changing the customer type or target customer is equally difficult. The hardest part is knowing and understanding the influence and decision making landscape if you are in B2B or to find the immediate value for the consumer if you are B2C.

The third hardest is the Customer problem pivot – one of the startups, realized, after talking to their target users that the problem more pressing was a different one and hence changed their product. If you already know your customer, but find out that the “latent” problem you perceived was different from the top 3 problems for your customer, then it is relatively less difficult to change course and pivot to the new problem. While communication with the internal team is still a challenge, these pivots tend to be able to execute faster.

The less harder pivot is the Business model pivot – a company went from charging on a SaaS monthly subscription model to a commission model on sales. By no means am I suggesting that a Business model pivot is easy. Having seen 2 companies of 14, just in the last 6 months, I think of all the other pivots, these are easier to execute and will likely take less time.

The first part of your problem is spotting the trend lines that help you understand when to pivot. The second (and likely more hard) part of your pivot is communicating – to your employees and founders, your customers, to potential and existing investors and to others who were involved – mentors, advisers, etc.

Lessons from the Greek debt crisis for entrepreneurs

Here is a hypothetical “real” situation. Lets say you raise  some angel money from a few friends (IMF) and a few rich individuals (Germany and French banks). The money you raised is $250K, in a convertible note (loan).

The intention was to get product to market (stabilize your economy) with that money and hire 2 others besides pay for you and your cofounder. You detail that the money will last 5 months at $10K per month per person, plus expenses.

Greek Debt Crisis
Greek Debt Crisis

The angel investors are not happy that you and your cofounder are taking $10K in salary per month, which they feel is a lot (yes I know that it seems like a small amount in SF, or Bangalore as well), but really want in your deal (because they believe you will build a good business).

Then after 5 months, the product is not quite there and will likely take 5 months more to bring to market. You go back to your investors and let them know the situation. While not happy, they are still ready to back you and now are willing to put $25K for the next 6 months, and ask both you and your cofounder to forgo your salary (austerity) until product is shipped.

You and your cofounder realize there’s no choice but to accept the austerity measures and give in to better terms as well and think that the pain (no salary) will be short term so it would be worth it.

6 months pass and you need to raise more money. You have some early customers, the product is in the market. The money is needed to scale, grow and also to provide some relief to the founders in terms of getting paid.

The new investors though, are not giving you the valuation that will give you any relief and are not willing to pay for the “accrued” salaries of the founders. They also think that to grow the business, some of the loans from the angel investors needs to be “written off”. The previous investors will take a “haircut” on their debt.

Previous investors are unwilling to take the haircut, so your funding, goals and priorities are at am impasse. Neither side is willing to give up.

You now have 3 choices.

1. Exiting investors take a haircut on their debt, and their “investment” of $75K, is going to be valued at $25K instead, but they will be part of any growth going forward.

2. New investors are willing to value the previous investment at $100K (which includes the $25K in accrued salaries to founders for the last 6 months) and are willing to fund the company enough to pay salaries and support growth.

3. The founders are willing to take a haircut on their ownership (and give it to previous angel investors) and forgo their salary for the last 6 months as well.

That’s the Greek debt crisis and the options in a nutshell, with the players changed and the situation more complicated (Euro, Social programs, etc.)than I explained it.

The reality of the go-forward plan is that there will be compromises that need to be made all around. Founders, previous angel investors and likely the new investors will all have to find a solution to keep the company going.

Who’s the most vested – the founders (or Greeks) who have spent 12 months of their life trying to bring product and idea to market.

Who’s the least vested – the new investors, who are not going to invest unless they see upside.

Who’s taken a lot risk – the existing angel investors, who put money in expecting a return, but knew fully well that it was risky.

Asking the existing investors alone to take a haircut wont be right, neither will it be fair to have the founders take all the burden of the new investment.

Ideally if you can “carve” out a portion of the future potential for both founders and previous investors, it would be fair.

I have seen though too many cases where new investors “Cram Down” previous investors and in many cases dilute the founders way too much to have meaningful value going forward, which is why terms and provisions in the convertible notes are getting more difficult and involved.

What’s the best solution you think to the above problem? Who (all) gets the haircut?

Rate of customer validation is the best indicator of #napkinStage success

When you have an adviser or two on board, I would recommend a monthly check-in with your advisory deck to actually get advice. Since no amount of expertise and knowledge the adviser has will replace your daily “living” and “breathing” your startup, you will have to brief them on key accomplishments and a view of the “trees”. If you have chosen the right advisers, hopefully they will help you see the forest from the trees.

The biggest challenge is showing “early momentum” and traction. Most traction falls into 2 buckets – product or customers. Side note: When you are a larger company there would be many buckets that are news worthy – funding announcements, partners, awards, hiring, event attendance, etc. but, at the napkin stage, only product updates and customer updates are valuable.

In terms of product updates, changes, modifications and new features (including design updates) are worthy of putting on your monthly advisory update. The best updates I have seen as an adviser are those that are related to changes the product based on feedback from potential beta customers, especially if the feedback results in the customer willing to pay for the product.

The second set of updates are around customers. In this particular case, activity is an early indicator of traction, so I would try and focus more on trying to use as many referrals from people you meet to get introductions to other customers.

A trick that I have seen several people use effectively is to focus on getting 2 customer meetings or demos each day for the first 3-6 months during the customer validation phase.

The rate of early customer validation is the best indicator of early success is what I have found.

The rate of early customer validation is the total number of “prospects” or “Customers” you talk to in a given time period. So, the more customers you get a chance to talk to in 2 weeks, versus another competitor who talks to fewer customers in the same time period, the better are your chances of determining problem fit.

8 great ideas and entrepreneurs from the Tamil Entrepreneur Forum 2015

Yesterday I attended and participated on the panel and judged the Tamil Entrepreneur Forum 2015 event. It was a gathering of about 200 folks from the Tamil community all over the US. This was the first time we had a pitch session and Lena Kanappan introduced the format as a way to support early stage entrepreneurs.

Tamil Entrepreneur Forum
Tamil Entrepreneur Forum

There were about 30-50 companies that applied and 8 of them were chosen to present at the forum. Here are their ideas. There were 3 winners, and I’d love your perspective on who you like.

1. ElVitae: A personal branding app and service that’s focused on being the next generation version of About.me. Their goal is to help individuals build their personal brand using the mobile phone alone and help them showcase their portfolio, successes and work beyond LinkedIn and Twitter. ElVitae was “Elevate your curriculum Vitae”

2. FixNix: Already successful in India, FixNix helps smaller businesses manage their Governance and Compliance during audits. Especially useful for regulated industries such as Banking, Healthcare, etc. which have compliance requirements, they have significant customers in large banks and Indian enterprises.

3. IandMyDoc: A ZocDoc clone for primary care physicians, I and My Doc helps you book appointments, schedule visitations, manage your vitals and keep track of your electronic medical records.

4. Indian Moms Connect: An online blog, eCommerce site, Subscription service and community for Indian moms in the US (and looking to expand in India). They problem they were trying to solve is that Indian moms have a lot of questions when they have their babies – and unlike in India where their mom or in-laws provide a lot of that advice, in the US they are unable to get that support. This was an online community to help them.

5. StoryTruck: NetFlix for Indian books and magazines. They want to go beyond just Indian books, but right now they primarily have licensed books and comics for Indian kids. They have over 1000’s of downloads and a working product with 2 book publishers on board. Their focus is on vernacular (native Indian language) content initially.

6. Sway: Mobile phone based budgeting for Millennials. This app is a new generation version of Mint, but with a lot more “fun” elements to help the millennial generation plan, manage and spend money wisely. Initial traction with several 100’s of users.

7. YumPlate: AirBbB for neighborhood food. If your neighbor is cooking something, they can post it on YumPlate and you could buy it from them. We had invested in a company called Imly before in India.

8. Zailoo: A price comparison app for car rides. The app helps you understand the cost of your Uber, Lyft or SideCar (and others) car ride from point A to B, before you get on the car. That way you can know and compare costs before your go on your ride. A month old and already featured on Product Hunt.

The founders were all pretty enthusiastic and had good early traction (most of them) to prove that their idea had merit.

Sway, Indian Moms Connect and FixNix were the 3 winners.

How can you tell if an angel investor is “real” or “fake”?

It has become quite fashionable to be an angel investor. The last 5 years has seen an increase in the number of registered angel investors on various platforms – from a mere 3000, we are at over 25K in the US alone. That begs the question – do we have more people who have become angel investors now, or are people richer, or did we always have them and we just found out about them now?

Many high net worth individuals would like to be angel investors, but just don’t have the inclination to do the heavy lifting that it requires to help entrepreneurs, source deals and find follow on investing. Most are also fairly conservative, especially if they have made money at a larger company and not been an entrepreneur before.

Here are key “leading indicator” questions that I ask before I try and syndicate deals with other angel investors, which might be useful for you to consider. YMMV.

  1. Have they invested before in a startup? The best indicator of an investor is if they have invested before. The time to make the first investment for a newly minted rich individual is close to 21 months. So, if in your discussions with a potential investor, they have never invested before, it is highly unlikely they will. Angel list is a good source, but not comprehensive. I would simply ask them this question. Or ask them for their previous investments? What companies have they invested in before?
  2. Do they come referred as an investor? The best network is still word-of-mouth. They best referrals for angel investors is typically not other investors, but entrepreneurs is what I have noticed. Even if an investor “passes” on an entrepreneur’s idea, I have found that if they have been respectful, consistent and fast in their communication, the entrepreneur will refer “relevant” deals to them.
  3. Are they accredited? When an investor has over $1 Million in investment capital (exclude the capital in their primary residence), or if they can show they have over $250K in annual income, they can be accredited. I have found the best way to determine this is ask the investor for who their financial consultant or tax consultant is. People who have that much money have a person for both or either. If they don’t, the signal I get is they are rather unsophisticated in their approach to investing.
  4. Are they involved and connected with the local startup ecosystem? Most interested angel investors are either mentors or advisers at local entrepreneur’s hot spots such as accelerators or co-working spaces. If they are not connected, it is likely they are not going to invest, since they don’t value the experience.
  5. Do they understand key terms and nuances? An experienced or willing angel investor understand convertible notes, equity rounds, key milestones and other “insider” terms well enough to not have you explain it to them. If you are educating the investor about angel investing, you are better of looking for someone else to do that, while you focus on your company.

What other questions would you use to differentiate between a “real” and “wannabe” investor?

If you are #napkinStage what is the 1 thing to focus on to get traction with investors?

I was at the Seattle Founders Institute graduation event last night with 40 others who gathered to see the 3 newly minted entrepreneurs from the program. From the over 100’s of applicants, there were 30+ who signed up for the program, and yesterday 3 folks graduated.

Seattle Founders Institute
Seattle Founders Institute

TeaBook is a monthly tea subscription. The founder has spent a lot of time in China to source and obtain unique tea’s that will be mailed to your home every day. The tea market is over $25 Billion and growing at 7% annually. They had a great story and compelling market presence. I personally felt the monthly subscription commerce business has many players, and I suspect in the next few years there will be much consolidation. The tea market itself has many competitors as well including TeaLet, teabox, Chahoney and LizzyKate. They have some early indication of traction, with some trials and some passionate customers already willing to sign up for the service.

American Giving – was focused on ending poverty in the US, with a researched philanthropy website. They founder was looking to create a indegogo style site, where philanthropists could research, back and support giving to Americans better. The potential to unlock over a $ Trillion in well researched giving would be large and they were looking to take a 15% admission fee on all giving.

MeltingSpot, has a 2 sided marketplace for helping consumers looking to meet “folks they like” near them. Think of “Tinder meets FourSquare”. They Melting Spot could be a bar, or a restaurant, who wants to “sponsor” a spot where people only interested in “animals” would be able to meet others. There are many dating sites and apps, and many social networks, but their focus was on helping folks in their local region. They would make money by charging bars to sponsor a “melting spot” – initial suggested retail price was $30/month.

All 3 entrepreneurs had great stories and did an excellent job showcasing the market (which was large) and spoke to their personal backgrounds as well. None of them had a working website or prototype (some mockups), but they had financial projections. They were all non developer or technical founders, looking for their CTO, but had the sales and marketing background and expertise.

All of them were looking to raise some money – from early seed (>$100K) to seed ($2 Million – teabook).

As an investor, the biggest challenge I faced was I was not sure how many more pivots were going to happen before they get Product Market fit. I suspect a lot more, because none of them had product shipping yet.

Which leads me believe that Kickstarter or Indegogo is the best way to show social proof, customer validation and early traction.

If you have an idea and you want to progress on the journey towards investment, the launch page with social proof, early orders on your crowd funding campaign, product prototype and having a well rounded team are a must have for #napkinStage companies. Those would be the things to focus on, more than distribution channels,

Leveraging your advisors for understanding the market dynamics before your customer development

One of the most effective ways to get smart advice early is to get a trusted advisor. Most companies I know get up to 3 advisors on board with different competencies, skills and expertise. Typically you’d like one advisor who has entrepreneurial background for customer and investor introductions, one for go to market expertise and one for technology excellence.

Once you have selected and recruited your advisors, I’d highly recommend a scheduled cadence to meet and consult your advisors (early on, once a month is good). Typically, most startups will (if all goes according to plan, which it never does, but nonetheless) need a new set of advisors every 18-24 months. Most advisors are paid in equity. Your advisor’s main role is to give you confidence, but many help with their strategic thinking or insights as well.

In this post I am going to talk about market dynamics using an example to help share a concept that I think you need to get advice from an external person for.

Let’s say you are trying to build a mobile application that replaces Siri or Google Now. This has been attempted before by many folks, so it is not a new idea, but I am taking a crack at shaping and outlining the landscape for discussion.

This will be a “smart assistant” that allows consumers to get personalized recommendations for many of their daily questions based on observed patterns on their phone – including usage of other applications.

Mobile Market Dynamics
Mobile Market Dynamics

In this particular case, there are 5 major “interested parties” – the consumer, who wants personalized recommendations, and needs the service, the app developers who have the data, the app store and platform which control the experience, the phone manufacturer, who makes the phone and the mobile carrier who provides the service.

Even though the first pass suggests that you should build the consumer service, focus on acquiring users and then get the app developers on board, it turns out unless you have the data (either from the platform or from the 3rd party app developers) you don’t have a valuable service.

Distribution might be easier for your product via the mobile carrier (if they choose to bundle it with the phones on their network) or even from the phone manufacturer, but unless you have many users, the carriers and the manufacturers don’t want to take a risk.

Consumers find that without their favorite applications (services) integrated into the platform, the assistant is of not much help.

So you realize it has to be the platform (Android, IoS, Windows phone, etc.) or the 3rd party app provider.

Since most consumers are using their favorite apps – such as Yelp, Uber, etc. the data is proprietary to that 3rd party app providers, who have little incentive to give you their “crown jewels”.

The best way to get the 3rd party app developers is to find a way to give them value, so they get consumers more engaged with their app, or acquire new users or monetize better.

While you still have to get consumers after you get the 3rd party app developers on board, that’s the “next problem” – the sequencing matters. Getting app developers quickly and the key (right ones, not anyone that will listen) ones is critical.

This is a good example of a market dynamic that typically you can get from an “insider”. Many of the seasoned investors will help you understand and navigate this landscape as well.

I would highly recommend you talk to potential advisors and help outline the problem statement so they can give you their perspective before you sign them up as an advisor. That way, you are able to gauge their expertise and understanding of strategy as well.

What do you think about this landscape? How would you analyze this better or differently?

Some awesome quotes from Pete Sampras’s letter to his younger self

Peter Sampras wrote a letter to his younger self. Great read.

Pete Sampras
Pete Sampras

“There will be times when you wake up in the middle of the night before a match craving crazy things like hamburgers and pizza. It’s because your body is missing something.”

“One day, everyone will be a nutrition freak. Be ahead of that curve.”

“Play hard, do it on your own terms and stay true to yourself. Do that, and you can’t go wrong.”

“It’s the people in your life — people like Tim — that will shape you. Appreciate them.”

How 3 peace-time founders are laying the foundation to transition to a war-time role

I have been at 3 board meetings this week. It is very apparent to me that we are in an environment where money is easily available to both the best and not so good performers. There are exceptional cases when the awful performer is also getting funded, but I want to avoid judging performance at the earliest stages.

Ben Horowitz popularized the term Peacetime CEO and Wartime CEO’s. We are at a really good peacetime – so the tactics for hiring, fund raising and customer acquisition are different than those when the market will turn – and it will. I cant predict when that will happen, and wont even know when it will start to turn.

I wanted to highlight the change in compensation strategy that’s being used by 3 companies who are preparing for when money gets more constrained, hiring is easier and customers are more cautious about their spending.

Most of the companies I know are moving from 60/20/20 split of base salary, performance bonus (based on individual goals) and stock options to

50/40/10 for marginal performers and

for the superstars, the compensation is 70/10/20.

The superstars have a total compensation that’s greater than the marginal performers.

PeaceTime CEO and WarTime CEO
PeaceTime CEO and WarTime CEO

What is being optimized is the bonus – for the marginal performers a lot more is being paid out on bonus – variable pay based on performance.

The logic behind the thinking is that the key players should not be poached – hence they are given a higher base than they would get outside, and are to be kept for the longer term – hence the incentive on the stock, whereas the marginal performers do not care about options that much.

Who are the marginal employees? Most of them are putting the “6 months, course at a coding academy” folks in the marginal employee pool. Not sure that’s correct, but that’s the approach being taken right now.

Going beyond “I have an idea” – a rigorous design of your experiment

The first step to your experiment is usually an idea. Either you or someone at your startup has an idea, which you want to determine is a good one or not. Having tried a framework to experiment your ideas, I’d say the crucial firs step is designing the experiment.

Brainstorming the idea over a casual conversation is usually the first step. The tendency among most startup oriented people is to complicate it and think of all the edge cases and 100% coverage, which is why documenting all the ideas is important.

This documentation need not be long drawn out or format, but needs to be written down.

The best way to do this is to continue using your multi-user messaging solution as before – Slack or HipChat, or Google docs suffices.

To design your experiment, you need to write down the 3 most important aspects of it.

a) Hypothesis b) Outcomes, c) Learning Objectives and d) Time frame

I mention hypothesis vs. assumptions for a reason.

Something that has yet not been proved to classify as a theory but believed to be true is a hypothesis.

An assumption is any statement that is believed to be true.

Until you know your idea will work or not, it is an experiment which has certain items you have to prove.

For example: If one of your customer service people have an idea – they believe as a startup you should send a summary email of the usage of the product every month so the customer understand how valuable your product is to them.

They believe this will reduce churn – the outcome you desire from this experiment.

Your hypothesis may be many all or some of which might be proven, yet others may be false – a) email summary reduces churn b) customers would like the email summary c) your email summary captures key pieces of information about the usage that customers care about and others.

Finally the learning objectives – this is important especially for failed experiments, but it will be useful if it succeeds as well – It helps plan future experiments and creates filters for ideas that come next.

Designing your experiment involves documenting these 3 important items, usually by the person who has the idea. Even an email will suffice, but documenting it is key – even an email will suffice.

Finally in designing the experiment, the time frame how long you are going to run it is important. First so you dont have too many experiments running at the same time, which might skew results, but second so that you can give each experiment the due time to determine if it truly failed or succeeded.

I was thinking of an acronym – HOTEL – Hypothesis, Outcomes, Time Frame, Experiment Design and Learning objectives, but it does not quite fit. I’d love some suggestions on if you can come up with a better acronym of if you believe I have missed documenting anything.

How to design Experiments
How to design Experiments