$LYFT $53.48 (-5% on 5/5) slid down after Q1 revenue of $609M (+12% QoQ) and adjusted EBITDA of($73M) – +15% QoQ.
$LYFT believes it can be adjusted EBITDA breakeven by Q2 2021, because of cost cutting measures it adopted post Covid, even with 35% less rides than in 2020.
$LYFT had lower drivers mostly due to Covid vaccinations and federal unemployment benefits, but is seeing ride volume rebound – especially to airports (+65% April relative to Jan).
$LYFT Positives: a) Increased Revenue per active rider (+0.2%) to $45.13 b) Lower costs leading to profitability and c) New offerings in B2B delivery.
$LYFT Negatives: a) Gross margins lower (-4%) thanks to Covid insurance, b) Growth is not as strong as $UBER
Analyst Updates
Deutsche Bank raises PT (Price Target) to $75
Stifel raised PT to $60
Credit Suisse raised PT to $76
Barclays raised PT to $60
Nomura raised PT to $63
Morgan Stanley raised PT to $70
Metrics
Active riders in Q1 went to 13.49M (-36% YoY)
Revenue per active rider in Q1 went to $45.13 (+0.2%)
Recommendation
I dont have a position in $LYFT but see $UBER as a better risk / reward at this point, and will wait until $UBER reports earnings end of day 5/5.
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