All posts by Mukund Mohan

My discipline will beat your intellect

The psychology of money – notes and quotes

This is not so much a book review as a summary of key quotes and my notes of the book “The psychology of money” by Morgan Housel

Financial outcomes are driven by luck, independent of intelligence and effort. Financial success is not a hard science. It’s a soft skill, where how you behave is more important than what you know. I call this soft skill the psychology of money. The aim of this book is to use short stories to convince you that soft skills are more important than the technical side of money.

To grasp why people bury themselves in debt you don’t need to study interest rates; you need to study the history of greed, insecurity, and optimism. To get why investors sell out at the bottom of a bear market you don’t need to study the math of expected future returns; you need to think about the agony of looking at your family and wondering if your investments are imperiling their future.

Be careful who you praise and admire. Be careful whom you look down upon and wish to avoid becoming.

Therefore, focus less on specific individuals and case studies and more on broad patterns.

You’ll get closer to actionable takeaways by looking for broad patterns of success and failure. The more common the pattern, the more applicable it might be to your life.

Nothing is as good or as bad as it seems.

The hardest financial skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving.

“Enough” is realizing that the opposite—an insatiable appetite for more— will push you to the point of regret.

There are a million ways to get wealthy, and plenty of books on how to do so. But there’s only one way to stay wealthy: some combination of frugality and paranoia.

Getting money requires taking risks, being optimistic, and putting yourself out there. But keeping money requires the opposite of taking risk. It requires humility, and fear that what you’ve made can be taken away from you just as fast. It requires frugality and an acceptance that at least some of what you’ve made is attributable to luck, so past success can’t be relied upon to repeat indefinitely.

More than I want big returns, I want to be financially unbreakable. And if I’m unbreakable I think I’ll get the biggest returns, because I’ll be able to stick around long enough for compounding to work wonders.

Planning is important, but the most important part of every plan is to plan on the plan not going according to plan.

A barbelled personality—optimistic about the future, but paranoid about what will prevent you from getting to the future—is vital.

“I’ve been banging away at this thing for 30 years. I think the simple math is, some projects work and some don’t. There’s no reason to belabor either one. Just get on to the next.” —Brad Pitt accepting a Screen Actors Guild Award

Anything that is huge, profitable, famous, or influential is the result of a tail event—an outlying one-in-thousands or millions event. And most of our attention goes to things that are huge, profitable, famous, or influential. When most of what we pay attention to is the result of a tail, it’s easy to underestimate how rare and powerful they are.

Money’s greatest intrinsic value—and this can’t be overstated—is its ability to give you control over your time. To obtain, bit by bit, a level of independence and autonomy that comes from unspent assets that give you greater control over what you can do and when you can do it.

Controlling your time is the highest dividend money pays.

Wealth is what you don’t see.

The first idea—simple, but easy to overlook—is that building wealth has little to do with your income or investment returns, and lots to do with your savings rate.

Past a certain level of income, what you need is just what sits below your ego.

Sunk costs—anchoring decisions to past efforts that can’t be refunded—are a devil in a world where people change over time.

“Every job looks easy when you’re not the one doing it” Jeff Immelt

Optimism is a belief that the odds of a good outcome are in your favor over time, even when there will be setbacks along the way.

The more you want something to be true, the more likely you are to believe a story that overestimates the odds of it being true.

Everyone has an incomplete view of the world. But we form a complete narrative to fill in the gaps.

The Electric Vehicle Revolution – a primer

Notes from my discussions with multiple industry analysts and reading many reports.

There are multiple changes happening with autombiles:

  1. Move to software-defined cars for “features” to be bought as subscriptions
  2. Move to electric vehicles from internal combustion engines
  3. Autonomous car technology
  4. Electrification of the charging network
  5. The growth of China as the leading EV and automobile producer (vs. Japan and Germany in the last 4-5 decades

The challenges:

  1. Availability of raw materials – Nickle, rare earths, etc.
  2. Supply chain security
  3. Affordability

In 2022, electric vehicles (EVs) took 11% global market
share (up from 6.5% in 2021), expecting 20% penetration by 2025
and the most aggressive for 100% by 2030.

Globally, we now expect battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to reach 40% penetration by 2030, and xEVs to reach 80% by 2035.

EV forecast calls for battery capacity to rise from ~600GWh in 2022 to 2,700GWh by end of 2030.

China has seen new energy vehicle (NEV) adoption become increasingly consumer-driven, with the country blowing past NEV penetration targets — the government sought to achieve ~20% penetration by 2025; it saw 23.5% in the first eight months of 2022. Chinese buyers seem to
favor domestic EVs over foreign (German and Japanese) brands though, leaving foreign OEMs potentially playing catch-up with domestic brands.

China represented close to 40% of the global battery
equipment market in 2021, up from 10%+ during 2016-19. Explosive growth over the past three years has been driven by sharply increasing investment in new energy industries.

Range anxiety over the switch from ICE to EVs has long been cited as a common impediment to greater EV adoption.

The Cybersecurity Market is $150B, growing to $1.5 Trillion by 2030

McKinsey says the market is under penetrated among mid-market companies and their research talking to 500 IT executives and 50+ cyber security vendors says this market is going to be large.

Some names of companies

Cloud security is the #1 Area of spend which bodes well for ZScaler, Cloudflare, Palo Alto Networks

Why few developers will make multi-millions but most will see their salaries flatten

This week on the app Blind there were several discussions about salaries. Specifically if technology engineer salaries have peaked.

Blind App

Google, Meta and Microsoft in particular, and some other companies in the valley, were known to pay over $1 Million for senior developers. In 2019, Google had 21 engineers making over a million and that number has most certainly gone up since. Similarly Facebook was known to have over 25 engineers making salaries over a million dollars (outside of stock RSUs and options).

To be fair, in the valley, a million dollars is a lot, but not unusual.

The discussion on Blind, the anonymous networking app, was if mid-level and senior engineers will no longer see $500K – $1M salaries without becoming Directors or VPs.

There are 3 trends to consider before I came to the conclusion that software development salaries will become more like Hollywood or professional sports salaries.

Few people at the top make a lot of money, while most B list actors make decent, but not more than the median income.

  1. With the flattening of the organization, Meta & others are seeking to be more like Amazon where there are certain metrics on span of control and ownership – minimum 6 people reporting to a manager and Directors should have at least 6-8 managers, which means their organization would be 50 – 100 people minimum. This means more developers per manager, and with AI, this will likely go higher, not lower (the number of developers reporting to an engineering manager will increase is my point).

2. The use of Artificial intelligence tools such as CoPilot and Tabnine will reduce the number of developers needed, as AI increasingly does a lot of the basic code output. This means a 10X developer will have to make 10X more than the average. If the average developer makes $150K, it makes sense for the 10X developer to make more than a million dollars.

3. 90% of the skills developers possess will become worth a tenth (e.g. actual writing of code that is reusable), but 10% of their skills (e.g. communicating with users and rapid iteration) will become more 10X more valuable.

Given these 3 trends, I predict that most developers will see their salaries remain same ($150K or so in the US as the median), but there will be far fewer developers in each team & organization.

At the same time a 1or 2 developers in each team or organization will make $1 million or more, even though they are not the manager.

Poll by Zigantic

In the poll yesterday by Zigantic, over 40% of developer (n=1362) expected their salaries to go dramatically lower. Which I dont think will happen.

While I understand the fear developers have, that’s not what I think is the way CEO’s and managers think. To prevent loss of morale, they will just hire fewer developers and make the current developers do more with AI.

AI is already reducing the number of software developers needed

I have a network of about a thousand entrepreneurs, founders, and small business owners who read my blog posts daily of the 114K subscribers to this blog. I get a chance to ask them questions and poll them once a month or sometimes more often.

Over the last few months as part of a project, I have been polling them frequently and asking them about AI and the impact at work. Most of these are software entrepreneurs (a smaller number are eCommerce founders).

The poll I conducted yesterday was:

“Are you reducing the number of people you hire because of ChatGPT, generative AI and other LLM – Large Language Models”?

– generated many emails and a few phone conversations.

One particular example was telling which a friend related to me yesterday.

The company has 10 people, 8 of them are developers. The CEO of the company provided subscriptions to ChatGPT ($20 / month) and GitHub Copilot ($19 / month) to all the developers and mentioned that he won’t hire for another year and instead the developers could use the AI tools to do their job.

  1. The CEO is happy since he hired one fewer person
  2. The employees were happy since they are getting a chance to use new tools (AI prompt engineering looks good on the resume now).
  3. The HR person is happy since they don’t have to hire and train, onboard, and recruit a new person

All around goodness.

AI is already starting to reduce the number of jobs. It is just doing it a little slowly.

Software entrepreneur prompt NightCafe AI generated