Job losses due to AI are overblown

I am an AI maximalist. What that means is that from day one I believe it will create more jobs eventually. I have been consistent on this. Why?

AI collapses the marginal cost of cognition.

When the marginal cost of a core production input collapses, systems reorganize around abundance, not scarcity.

That is what happened with:
energy, transportation, computation, communication, and storage.

Now it is happening to reasoning itself.

The mistake most AI doomers make is treating “today’s jobs” as the unit of analysis.

Historically, that has never been the correct frame. The economy does not preserve jobs. It preserves demand satisfaction.

The tractor did not “save farming jobs.”
Excel did not “protect bookkeepers.”
AWS did not “protect sysadmins.”

Instead: costs collapsed, throughput exploded, adjacent industries emerged, organizational complexity increased, new coordination problems appeared, new abstractions became valuable.

The important historical pattern is not merely “technology creates jobs.” Sometimes it absolutely destroys categories permanently. The important pattern is that productivity increases create systemic expansion.

Labor absorption, however does not happens smoothly. History says it absolutely does not.

The transition periods are brutal.

Agricultural mechanization was not painless. Industrialization was not painless. Globalization was not painless. Software automation was not painless.

AI increases the frontier of economically viable ambition.

Humans are not utility-maximizing relaxation machine.

We are stupid. We find meaning in work.

The modern middle class consumes luxuries kings literally could not buy:

  • instant communication,
  • air travel,
  • climate control,
  • infinite entertainment,
  • personalized medicine,
  • software infrastructure,
  • global commerce.

As cognition becomes cheaper, expectations will inflate again.

The future employee may manage:

  • 20 AI agents,
  • synthetic workflows,
  • autonomous pipelines,
  • real-time market simulations,
  • personalized customer systems.

That is still work. Just different work.


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